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Heavyweight Challenger

Joe Pawlak, a vice president at food industry consulting and research firm Technomic, has a different opinion.

"I think it's going to have a very limited affect on Starbucks," he says of McDonald's specialty drinks initiative, adding that consumers will see Starbucks as a different, more upscale option. "[McDonald's] is going to bring specialty coffee more to the masses."

I foresee that Starbucks will need to return to its roots to regain its competitive advantage.”

Consumers, Pawlak anticipates, will see McDonald's specialty drinks as more of an occasion for takeout. As such, the retailers that should be worried are chains such as Dunkin’ Donuts, which offer specialty coffees and blended drinks at a price point similar to where McDonald's products will presumably enter.

One group of retailers that probably won't be hurt is higher-end independent coffee shops. Contrary to popular belief, these types of retailers often experience a boom in business—sometimes as much as 20 percent—when a Starbucks sets up shop nearby, Hetzel says. The same phenomenon could presumably result from a neighboring McDonald's selling similar beverages.

"I believe it's only helpful," Hetzel says. "It educates consumers on a better quality of coffee that exists. There's so much more that the independents can do that it expands their market. When coffee tastes better…people drink more."

In the end, however, it's all speculation until McDonald's actually rolls out the drinks. Crain's reported that the move will require the chain to make the most extensive changes to its restaurants since it switched kitchens to a cook-to-order system for sandwiches in the late 1990s. Equipment needed to implement the program includes machines for making specialty coffees and smoothies, as well as cold storage for bottled soft drinks and energy drinks.

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Jamie Hartford is a freelance writer and former QSR associate editor based in Portland, Oregon.