The Journey up the Trend Map

Let’s use chipotle chile peppers to illustrate past and current trend adoption rates. In 1989, the smoky ingredient appeared in a crossover taco shop in San Francisco’s Marina district. By 1993, gourmet magazines were publishing recipes with chipotle and Chipotle Mexican Grill opened in Denver. By 1995, chain restaurants began highlighting the chile. The pepper hit mainstream women’s magazines by 1998; that same year, McDonald’s acquired all 13 Chipotle units. The trend reached Stage 5 by 2002, a 13-year journey flavoring condiments and other prepared foods. Six years later, Chipotle Grill is more than 730 units strong.

Thirteen to 19 years sounds like a long time. Often our clients ask if trends move faster today. And the answer is yes—especially trends in the health and wellness sector.

Açaí, the Amazonian palm berry, emerged as a Sambazon-branded smoothie ingredient in 2001, reaching Stage 1. By 2004, beverages like Zola and Bossa Nova featured it. In 2006, açaí appeared in Cascade Yogurt and Herbal Essence Color Me Happy shampoo. This year’s additions are VeeV Açaí spirit and Tropicana Pure Raspberry Açaí juice. Nearing mainstream, the antioxidant ingredient continues to proliferate and will soon hit Stage 5 after only seven years.

Other trendy ingredients have similar timelines. Green tea transformed from a stereotypical Asian brew to a miracle cure in about seven years. Edamame took about eight years to go from the pages of Gourmet to becoming a healthful snack for kids.

Why Some Trends Take Hold

Clearly it still takes years for culinary trends to reach mainstream. Yet not all new food items or ingredients on menus even become true trends. This is why it is vital to constantly monitor activity in Stage 1 and 2, tracking potential culinary trends to catch them when they start moving up the map.

Many restaurant trends never get very far. We still don’t see ceviche on chain restaurant menus due to the challenges of working with raw fish, consumer squeamishness, and high costs. Manchego cheese hasn’t moved far off the cheese plate in neighborhood wine bars, either. So what influences trend adoption?

The rate and success of trend adoption relates to how well a product fulfills needs, whether for convenience, a health boost, or a sophisticated flavor. Successful trends also combine familiarity with novelty. Anything too unknown, like mangosteens, might take longer to penetrate, but green tea energy bars, while novel, are understandable.

Trends also move faster today because of consumer exposure rates. Food television, the Internet, increased global travel, and a multiethnic society all contribute to consumer trend exposure. Specialty grocery chains, like Whole Foods and Trader Joe’s, also play a role. Even restaurants and foodservice outlets are responding faster with on-trend offerings. The Cheesecake Factory serves an ahi carpaccio with togarashi aioli flavored with the Japanese seven-spice blend, while campus cafeterias serve cutting edge ethnic foods, especially vegetarian and vegan Indian dishes, to demanding Gen Y-ers.

Fad or Trend?

Considering all this new information about food, how can you tell what’s a fad and what might be a legitimate trend? Fads tend to spike high and fast but have no longevity. Typically, niche groups discover and promote fads such as low-carb diets. Media hype then spreads the word. But because consumer drivers behind many fads aren’t strong enough, they eventually fizzle. Who can really give up carbs long term?

The low-carb diet, however, shows how some fads are manifestations of underlying trends. Overall, Americans are eating healthier today than four years ago and are more conscious of whole grains. The low-carb diet fad thus merged into the overarching Health and Wellness trend. Kraft offers the perfect illustration: Its South Beach Diet brand is now called South Beach Living.

In contrast, trends, both larger consumer trends and smaller culinary trends, grow at a slow, steady pace. They put down cultural roots and resonate more with society. Whole grains mean better health and even strike chords of nostalgia in consumers today. Think about the memories of childhood that resonate from a steaming bowl of oatmeal. This is where meaning and relevancy come in.

Trends also spread all over; think about the Green movement today. Culinary trends will migrate from one food category, like bread, to many others. Today, consumers encounter whole grains in nearly every grocery aisle, from bread to cereal to frozen entrées. Papa John’s recently launched a whole-wheat pizza crust, showing how quick-serves leverage healthy eating trends.