35–54
Percent of 2015 U.S. Population: 29%
This demographic group will comprise approximately 29 percent of the total U.S. population in 2015, down close to 5 percent from 2010.
Disposable Income
Although members of this age demographic generally have the highest earning potential, their level of discretionary income will be mitigated by debt incurred when buying homes and raising families, says Morris.
Single-income families (and there still are many of them) will feel the pain most as they struggle to stretch their money to cover the essentials and, as a result, pull back from or, at least, delay discretionary purchases. Whether due to recent massive job losses and freezes (unemployment rates are expected to rise 10 percent by the end of this year alone) or overuse of credit cards, these consumers are likely to feel the most pain in the coming years. “We’re looking at groups that have grown up in the Golden Age of credit cards and will have to adjust to increasing interest rates and decreasing credit lines, making it more difficult to secure loans for homes and automobiles,” Morris says.
Where They’ll Live
This group will continue its shift the metropolitan areas and close-by suburbs, says Stanek. How far out into the suburbs they’ll be able to go depends primarily on commute times, which, Morris notes, should be significantly reduced by enhanced rail systems.
Where They’ll Shop
Regarding health and personal care and non-perishable food, most consumers who say they will buy online are between the ages of 35 and 49, reports Capgemini, an international consulting, technology, and outsourcing firm. Women will be more likely to buy Do-It-Yourself (DIY) items, books/music and electronics in a physical store, but food, health/personal care and fashion items online. Male consumers say they would buy more electronics and books/music online. For the sake of time and convenience, these consumers are likely to take advantage of technologies that set up automatic monitoring and delivery of foods and other staple items based on their individual shopping histories and preferences. Capgemini found that “with the exception of digital personal offerings, information via kiosks and information via screens on shopping carts, consumers age 50 and older were the least likely to say they would use technologies for buying in the future.” Shoppers who visit physical stores will be looking for more “experiences, such as cooking or beauty demonstrations and fashion shows, say the experts.
55–64
Percent of 2015 U.S. Population: 12%
This second wave of boomers will account for over 12 percent of the population, up almost 65 percent since 2010.
Disposable Income
As the boomer demographic ages, members will rely increasingly on accumulated wealth to determine discretionary purchases. Prior to the recession, the U.S. Census Bureau and Information Resources, Inc. (IRI) predicted the combination of “early-” and “late-stage” boomers will control nearly 50 percent of discretionary income. However, this age group has seen its accumulated assets (e.g. home values, stock market investments, etc.) drain away and, in many cases, totally evaporate, Boomers may not be able to recover today’s wealth losses, says Badillo. Even the most affluent have been affected by portfolio losses. As a result, many of the economic behaviors they adopt during the current recession will most likely be permanent even as the job crunch eases for the younger groups and their income levels begin to bounce back. Many tail end Boomers will probably postpone retirement, remaining in the workplace, either full-time or part-time, longer than they had anticipated to continue drawing a salary.
Where They’ll Live
As they reach the empty-nester stage, this group will continue to live in the metropolitan/suburban areas, but they will begin to downsize to smaller living quarters in areas that offer them the convenience of finding the goods and services they need close by, Stanek said.
Where They’ll Shop
As these consumers age, they will continue to use the Internet to buy goods and research services (e.g. health care, cosmetic products and procedures, and lifestyle comforts). Instead of sprawling, generic malls and big box stores, this group will demand a return of smaller footprint neighborhood stores and shopping centers that cater to their specific tastes. Even Wal-Mart will be expected to scale down in store size.
65+
Percent of 2015 U.S. Population: 14%
“First Wave” boomers, many of whom are approaching 70, will make up around 14 percent of the total U.S. population, an increase of about 26 percent from 2010.
Disposable Income
In addition to Social Security and pensions, accumulated wealth is almost exclusively the source of this group’s disposable income. Like “Second Wave” boomers, how much spending money they have depends upon how much of their recession-reduced wealth they’ve recouped.
Where They’ll Live
Although this group might have long dreamt of an idyllic country retirement, practical considerations keep most of them firmly rooted in the metropolitan and suburban areas, Stanek predicts. As they age, an increasing number of this demographic will relocate to retirement communities, assisted care facilities, and nursing homes in these areas.
Where They’ll Shop
For this group, the shopping experience must increasingly provide opportunities for leisure, entertainment, and enrichment opportunities. Not wanting to travel too far afield from home, their major requirements will be “smaller, closer, easier” and their “help me” mantra will require human interaction. Catalogs will continue to lose ground as a shopping channel due to production and mailing expenses and diminishing consumer use, but they will morph into, what Stanek calls, to “magalogs, marketing vehicles for online and physical stores.