2013 Growth 40 - Small

This year’s Growth 40 includes insights from our new data partner, Chicago-based NPD Group, one of the world’s leading foodservice market research firms. The NPD-led Growth 40 uses historical information from the agency’s CREST reports, which track consumer usage at foodservice outlets, as well as a population forecast from California-based Applied Geographic Solutions (AGS) to produce the QSR Traffic Growth Forecast statistic. While NPD Group forecasts just a 3 percent rise in the number of people visiting quick serves in the U.S. between 2011 and 2016, traffic projections for all members of the Growth 40 list—segmented as 15 large markets (more than 2.5 million residents), 15 medium (1–2.5 million), and 10 small (fewer than 1 million)—surpass that mark.

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Census DivisionDMAQSR Traffic Growth Forecast 2011-2016sort iconQSR UnitsDensity (Units per 100k Population in 2011)2011 Population2016 PopulationPop Pct Chg
WestYUMA-EL CENTRO, AZ-CA 19.6%27672.7379,881418,48010%
CentralFARGO-VALLEY CITY, ND 16%51283.1616,406651,3706%
SouthODESSA-MIDLAND, TX 16%41396.8426,767478,78212%
WestMEDFORD-KLAMATH FALLS, OR 15.1%500115.8431,702448,8284%
SouthLAREDO, TX 14.7%22983.8273,255309,08613%
WestHELENA, MT 14.4%7098.670,95978,79211%
SouthWILMINGTON, NC 14.4%45396.6468,969526,17712%
WestBAKERSFIELD, CA 13.5%73293.5782,871880,65712%
SouthCOLUMBUS, GA 13.4%56699.1571,343603,7616%
WestPALM SPRINGS, CA 13.2%441101.4434,946488,01212%
Total U.S.3%313,183101.1309,721,442322,752,1554%

Methodology: The QSR Traffic Growth Forecast is based on historical CREST performance, as well as forecasted population growth for each market, and represents growth in number of people visiting quick-service restaurants. The NPD Group modeled the historic data to produce a regression line (i.e., a general trajectory) of eating behavior, and then applied forecasted population numbers obtained from AGS (Applied Geographic Solutions, Cambria, California).

About The NPD Group Foodservice Division The NPD Group is the foodservice industry’s leading source for trends and performance indicators such as traffic, consumer spending, same-store sales, check size, and consumer demographics. NPD’s rigorous foodservice market research includes CREST®, which continually tracks more than 400,000 consumer visits at commercial and non-commercial foodservice establishments a year; SalesTrack® Weekly, which monitors the same-store sales of 100,000 leading restaurants; SalesTrack® Market, which, like SalesTrack® Weekly, monitors same-store sales but on a market basis; QSR Market Monitor, a syndicated awareness, trial, and usage tracker; and CREST® Local Market, which tracks consumers’ local preferences, demo- graphics, and restaurant visits across the country’s top media markets. For more information, visit restaurantindustrytrends.com.

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