The TrendMapping content-analysis method developed years ago at Center for Culinary Development consistently shows that culinary trends pass through five distinct stages en route to mainstream acceptance—a level of mass penetration that typically culminates in a flavor or dish turning up on quick-service menuboards and on grocery-store shelves.

First, the new dish or ingredient is road-tested by cutting-edge chefs in adventurous urban markets—sometimes in the form of daily specials, sometimes on the standard daily menu. An item that proves highly popular with diners often stays on the menu long-term. And sometime during its lifespan, the item will be sampled by other chefs, who always keep an eye on their competition’s creative and commercial breakthroughs. Those chefs might ultimately add the dish to their own establishments’ menus.

After enough chefs have introduced a similar dish or begun experimenting with an exciting new taste, culinary specialty media such as Bon Appetit, Food & Wine, or the Food Network will take note of the burgeoning phenomenon. This is Stage 2 on the TrendMap. And if enough articles on the same subject appear in these taste-making publications, you can bet that mid-scale chain restaurants, such as Applebee’s, Chili’s, and others, will soon begin to tinker with the trend and test it on their own menus. That’s Stage 3.

Once the chain restaurants find themselves with a runaway hit, it’s just a few short steps to Stage 4, where the trend in question begins to attract coverage in magazines, such as Better Homes and Gardens and Family Circle. And this positive press typically leads to Stage 5, in which quick-serves and large grocery stores get in the game. The best and most prevalent examples of trends that have followed this life cycle are such modern staples as pesto, Caesar salads, chipotle, salsa, and lattes.

Now, part of quick-service’s reluctance to be swept up in the taste du jour has to do with prudence. Creating and launching new products is a costly exercise, and a heavily promoted new sandwich that doesn’t drive transactions or check amounts won’t provide an adequate return on investment.

However, the downside of this conservative tendency is that fast-food chains seldom get in on the ground floor of the most profitable trends. Imagine if, instead of adding a chipotle chicken sandwich to its menu after the popular chile had already made its appearance in several other contexts, a McDonald’s or a Burger King or a KFC had been first to introduce it. The chains conceivably could have reaped the “first-on-their-block” benefits of breaking a bona-fide blockbuster.

The question here in late 2005 is which emerging trends quick-serves might want to examine closely if they want to secure that all-important first-mover advantage. TrendMapping analysis reveals six specific up-and-comers:

Chimichurri’s uniquely sharp, intense flavor and vinaigrette-like texture could make it every bit as popular here as salsa is today. And because, like salsa, its basic ingredient mix can be altered to achieve varying degrees of spiciness and different flavor profiles—variants include red pepper flakes, cilantro and mint, red or white vinegar, soy sauce, tomatoes, and sherry—chimichurri’s versatility is already attracting the attention of culinary trendsetters like James Schenk, owner and executive chef of the Nuevo Latino bistro Destino on San Francisco’s Market Street. Last year, Schenk ladled chimichurri over Pacific mahi-mahi and a puree of white fava beans. A few blocks away, the Acme Chophouse, in the city’s South of Market district, offers a chimichurri sauce as one of five sauce selections available for any of its popular beef entrees. In addition, at Foreign Cinema in San Francisco, it’s served as part of a delicious natural rib-eye dinner.

Epicurious.com lists some 15 recipes for chimichurri dating back to 1999, and, in a development that reveals how much momentum the green stuff from Argentina is gaining Stateside, both T.G.I. Friday’s and Chili’s have begun incorporating chimichurri in their menu items.

If you’ve never been to a churrascaria, you’re in for a treat. Think Dim Sum, South American-style. The first half of the meal consists of an enormous salad bar that boasts an astounding array of hot and cold appetizers. Then, out come huge skewers of meat, which your server will typically stab into the top of your table while he or she carves off slabs of perfectly fire-grilled meats for you. The staff will keep on stopping by and slicing until you indicate, by turning over a card or medallion they’ve placed on your table, that you’ve had your fill.

Churrascarias have already taken root in San Francisco and New York, and Fogo de Chao, a chain with outlets in Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, Chicago, and Beverly Hills, has proven with its success that the concept has legs.

Steven Raichlen, host of public television’s Barbecue University and author of several best-selling books on barbecue, says he believes churrasco is clearly among the hottest barbecue trends in the U.S. today, and adds that he believes the churrascaria could be “the Outback of the new millennium.” With that kind of endorsement, it’s not hard to see why we’re bullish on Brazilian barbecue’s potential in the marketplace. next >