2020 Future of Fast Casual Report

    In this inaugural report, we break down the state of fast casual in the pre-coronavirus world. Which brands and categories are best positioned to recover after the pandemic?

    Dog Haus
    Chris Flynn

    Dog Haus, a fast-casual franchise, was founded as a spot for creative hot dogs, sausages, and brats, but the bulk of its sales are burgers.

    For more information about purchasing the full report, which includes an 85-slide deck and a 20-page PDF appendix of Top 250 rankings, please contact Greg Sanders at Greg@FoodNewsMedia.com.

    A decade ago, fast casual underwent a genesis. Once a niche category with a few players spread across a handful of cuisines—say, Chipotle and Baja Fresh covering Mexican and Panera Bread and Corner Bakery tackling the bakery-café space—fast casual suddenly became the hottest thing in foodservice. The Great Recession pushed casual customers to trade down, while the rise in foodieism drove young consumers—particularly millennials—to seek out higher-quality eats.

    Fast casual stood right at the intersection of value and quality, and for the last 10 years has filled in every corner of the U.S. with every manner of food served quickly and affordably.

    But, just like any other trend, fast casual has also worn thin on some. And with mobile ordering and off-premises experiences giving quick-service chains a boost in competition for market share, could it be that fast casual isn’t the darling it once was? Darren Tristano, CEO of Foodservice Results, says that, prior to the coronavirus, the fast-casual segment was experiencing lower growth rates compared with years past, especially as oversaturation in restaurants created difficulty for expanding chains to find opportunities to drive unit volumes necessary to building sustainable restaurants. 

    QSR partnered with Tristano in this first-ever Future of Fast Casual Report, which explores consumer sentiment toward the fast-casual industry prior to the coronavirus outbreak. The report offers valuable insights into customer preferences and ordering habits within fast casual. And while the pandemic and resulting economic downturn will drastically alter the restaurant landscape, the report's findings offer a glimpse at what customers wanted from their favorite restaurants before the coronavirus—and what they will likely want once it's in the rearview mirror.

    "Although great uncertainty exists from the COVID-19 crisis, insights from this report will help suppliers and operators plan their strategy and manage scenarios for the current year," Tristano says. "The report data and insights remain relevant as the industry prepares and plans to navigate the new normal."

    Here, we've dug deeper into six menu categories within the fast-casual space to explore how brands were innovating—pre-coronavirus—in an effort to rise above the competition. Take a glimpse at some of the data below, and click on the category links to get a deeper dive into the state of fast casual, including insights from Tristano on each of the six categories.

    Breaking it Down

    Pizza & Burger: Where the fast-casual heavyweights go from here

    Tacos & Seafood: Two categories with plenty of runway for growth

    Asian & Barbecue: Are they too niche to jumpstart national chains? 

    FC category frequency

     
    Fast casual category
    Percent who have visited in last 30 days
    Asian/Noodles
    26%
    Bakery café
    37%
    Barbecue 
    18%
    Burger
    57%
    Chicken
    33%
    Healthy - Mediterranean
    9%
    Healthy - Salad
    11%
    Healthy – Vegetarian or Vegan
    7%
    Healthy – Other
    6%
    Mexican – Burrito
    39%
    Mexican – Taco Shop
    18%
    Pizza
    41%
    Seafood – Fish/Fried Fish
    17%
    Seafood – Poke
    4%
    Seafood – Lobster/Crab/Shrimp
    10%
    Sandwich
    36%
    Other
    2%

    Reasons to Return

     
    What reason would you choose to return to a fast casual in the future? (choose two)
     
    Appealing menu
    45%
    Value for money
    34%
    High-quality standards
    27%
    Service
    24%
    Convenient location
    24%
    Ability to customize/build your own
    20%
    Uniqueness of menu
    10%
    Appealing atmosphere
    7%
    Advanced ordering technology
    4%
    Kids menu available
    2%
    Other
    1%

    Most recent fast-casual experience

     
    Ordered and ate onsite
    48%
    Ordered onsite for carryout
    32%
    Ordered in advance for pickup
    9%
    Ordered for delivery direct from the restaurant
    5%
    Ordered for delivery from a 3rd party delivery company
    5%

    Ordering in the Future

     
    How do you plan to order from fast casual in the future? (choose two)
     
    In person, at counter
    74%
    Online via restaurant website or app
    48%
    In person, at kiosk
    39%
    Online via 3rd party delivery service
    18%
    By telephone
    13%
    Using a voice-enabled speaker or device
    8%

    High-Priority Characteristics

     
    Fast casual characteristics 
    Percent who say somewhat or extremely important
    Location
    84
    Speed of service
    84
    Price
    84
    Satisfy a craving
    84
    Usage of high-quality ingredients
    81

    Low-Priority Characteristics

     
    Fast casual characteristics 
    Percent who say somewhat or extremely important
    Location
    84
    Speed of service
    84
    Price
    84
    Satisfy a craving
    84
    Usage of high-quality ingredients
    81

    Customer Frequency

    Quick Service Customer Frequency
     
    Every day
    8%
    A couple times a week
    25%
    Once a week
    27%
    Two to three times a month
    19%
    Once a month
    12%
    Once every 2–3 months
    4%
    Less often than every 3 months
    2%
    Never
    1%
    Fast Casual Customer Frequency
     
    Every day
    4%
    A couple times a week
    14%
    Once a week
    23%
    Two to three times a month
    29%
    Once a month
    30%
    Once every 2–3 months
    0%
    Less often than every 3 months
    0%
    Never
    0%
    Midscale Restaurant Customer Frequency
     
    Every day
    3%
    A couple times a week
    6%
    Once a week
    10%
    Two to three times a month
    18%
    Once a month
    26%
    Once every 2–3 months
    22%
    Less often than every 3 months
    10%
    Never
    4%
    Casual Dining Customer Frequency
     
    Every day
    3%
    A couple times a week
    7%
    Once a week
    10%
    Two to three times a month
    19%
    Once a month
    29%
    Once every 2–3 months
    19%
    Less often than every 3 months
    11%
    Never
    3%
    Fine Dining Customer Frequency 
     
    Every day
    4%
    A couple times a week
    5%
    Once a week
    6%
    Two to three times a month
    8%
    Once a month
    13%
    Once every 2–3 months
    17%
    Less often than every 3 months
    34%
    Never
    14%

    Methodology

    The Foodservice Results team conducted a comprehensive, nationally representative survey of fast-casual consumers in the U.S. using an online survey sample. Participants in this research were screened for frequency of use as well as numerous demographic characteristics in order to ensure that the respondent base was reflective of the U.S. fast-casual market. Leveraging insights from numerous industry experts, the finalized survey was completed by 1,004 fast-casual consumers during fieldwork. To ensure a relevant respondent base was achieved, all participants were screened to only include those who had at least one fast-casual occasion in the last 30 days. An extensive cross tabulation of the respondent sample data was conducted in order to identify major trends, demographic/behavioral themes, and other nuances in the data. Following analysis of all data, this report was developed to communicate key findings and important data from the study.