While nobody has a COVID-19 crystal ball, there is one fallout that seems a safe bet. Some of the country’s biggest chains, from McDonald’s to Burger King to Starbucks, are using this juncture to trim under-performing restaurants and replace others with assets designed for a digital world. In truth, this isn’t so much a pandemic byproduct as it is an acceleration. This was taking form pre-COVID-19—the crisis simply compressed the timeframe.
Restaurants were already shrinking footprints, investing in tech, and reconfiguring layouts to better serve convenience-minded consumers. Things like digital pickup shelves, mobile order pickup windows, second make-lines, ghost kitchens, and reimagined drive-thru lanes.
As this unfurls, real estate and conversions will open up. Closures, to whatever level ends up as reality, is going to ignite expansion opportunity for restaurants ready to capitalize. Some full-service chains, like Applebee’s and IHOP, have noted the harsh truth that independents are going to face extremely harsh pressure. And those closure sites are going to shift the impending growth debate. As will a less-saturated landscape that offers competitive opportunities.
To put it plainly, a year or two from now, perhaps sooner, the makeup of the restaurant industry is going to look very different.
Each year, in addition to ranking the Top 50 quick-service chains in America, QSR collects the “contenders,” or the 15 brands just outside the cutoff. Given the inevitable unit count movement brought on by COVID-19, it’s rather likely some of these push through in 2021. However, it’s just as possible they fall back further and other concepts emerge. Some, like MOD Pizza and Smoothie King, enjoyed growth north of 60 units from 2018 to 2019. Others, like Boston Market and Long John Silver’s, slid by 50-plus.
CHECK OUT LAST YEAR’S CONTENDERS
Here’s a look at where the contenders stacked up coming into the year, from sales, average-unit volume, and growth.
Note: These figures are year-end 2019 domestic numbers and ranked in order of systemwide sales.
Image credits:MOD Pizza
