What cities are best for quick-service restaurant growth? Which are rising markets? Which are fading? Operators across the country are tasked with figuring out the answers as they look to start or scale their brands, and QSR’s Growth 40 report details some of the top markets across the country to target. Here are the top 20 from this year’s report.
Note: The Growth 40 uses historical information from NPD’s CREST reports, which track consumer usage at foodservice outlets, as well as a population forecast from California-based Applied Geographic Solutions (AGS) to produce the QSR Traffic Growth Forecast statistic. The Score is a proprietary metric that is a measure of market opportunity. It takes into account the quick-service restaurant density in a market, as well as the difference between the traffic growth and population growth. A high score could be driven by a large difference between population and traffic growth and/or a low quick-service restaurant density.
1. Yuma and El Centro, Arizona
NPD Score: 32
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2018: 153
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2023: 148
QSRs Open as of March 31: 283
QSRs Per 100,000 Population as of March 31: 71.9
Forecasted QSR Traffic Growth 2018-2023: 2%
2018 Population: 393,625
2023 Population Projected: 408,512
Projected Population Growth: 4%
Read more in the 2018 Growth 40 here.
2. Elmira, New York
NPD Score: 29
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2018: 177
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2023: 179
QSRs Open as of March 31: 224
QSRs Per 100,000 Population as of March 31: 93.5
Forecasted QSR Traffic Growth 2018-2023: 12%
2018 Population: 239,463
2023 Population Projected: 231,701
Projected Population Growth: -3%
Read more in the 2018 Growth 40 here.
3. Harlingen, Weslaco, Brownsville, and McAllen, Texas
NPD Score: 27
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2018: 63
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2023: 58
QSRs Open as of March 31: 1,156
QSRs Per 100,000 Population as of March 31: 83.9
Forecasted QSR Traffic Growth 2018-2023: 9%
2018 Population: 1,377,874
2023 Population Projected: 1,447,823
Projected Population Growth: 5%
Read more in the 2018 Growth 40 here.
4. Watertown, New York
NPD Score: 25
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2018: 174
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2023: 180
QSRs Open as of March 31: 228
QSRs Per 100,000 Population as of March 31: 91.4
Forecasted QSR Traffic Growth 2018-2023: 1%
2018 Population: 249,457
2023 Population Projected: 229,264
Projected Population Growth: -8%
Read more in the 2018 Growth 40 here.
5. Erie, Pennsylvania
NPD Score: 23
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2018: 150
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2023: 154
QSRs Open as of March 31: 363
QSRs Per 100,000 Population as of March 31: 91.1
Forecasted QSR Traffic Growth 2018-2023: 4%
2018 Population: 398,285
2023 Population Projected: 387,350
Projected Population Growth: -3%
Read more in the 2018 Growth 40 here.
6. Quincy, Illinois; Hannibal, Missouri; and Keokuk, Iowa
NPD Score: 22
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2018: 173
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2023: 174
QSRs Open as of March 31: 218
QSRs Per 100,000 Population as of March 31: 84.6
Forecasted QSR Traffic Growth 2018-2023: -3%
2018 Population: 257,570
2023 Population Projected: 248,715
Projected Population Growth: -3%
Read more in the 2018 Growth 40 here.
7. Duluth, Minnesota and Superior, Wisconsin
NPD Score: 22
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2018: 146
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2023: 146
QSRs Open as of March 31: 357
QSRs Per 100,000 Population as of March 31: 84.9
Forecasted QSR Traffic Growth 2018-2023: -1%
2018 Population: 420,508
2023 Population Projected: 415,817
Projected Population Growth: -1%
Read more in the 2018 Growth 40 here.
8. Rochester, Mason City, Austin, Minnesota
NPD Score: 21
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2018: 156
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2023: 155
QSRs Open as of March 31: 331
QSRs Per 100,000 Population as of March 31: 87.5
Forecasted QSR Traffic Growth 2018-2023: 4%
2018 Population: 378,117
2023 Population Projected: 387,348
Projected Population Growth: 2%
Read more in the 2018 Growth 40 here.
9. Idaho Falls, Pocatello, Idaho
NPD Score: 21
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2018: 152
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2023: 144
QSRs Open as of March 31: 375
QSRs Per 100,000 Population as of March 31: 95.0
Forecasted QSR Traffic Growth 2018-2023: 16%
2018 Population: 394,648
2023 Population Projected: 422,237
Projected Population Growth: 7%
Read more in the 2018 Growth 40 here.
10. Tampa, St. Petersburg, Sarasota, Florida
NPD Score: 21
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2018: 13
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2023: 13
QSRs Open as of March 31: 4,512
QSRs Per 100,000 Population as of March 31: 92.4
Forecasted QSR Traffic Growth 2018-2023: 16%
2018 Population: 4,883,614
2023 Population Projected: 5,389,457
Projected Population Growth: 10%
Read more in the 2018 Growth 40 here.
11. Utica, New York
NPD Score: 20
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2018: 168
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2023: 170
QSRs Open as of March 31: 245
QSRs Per 100,000 Population as of March 31: 91.5
Forecasted QSR Traffic Growth 2018-2023: 2%
2018 Population: 267,685
2023 Population Projected: 263,038
Projected Population Growth: -2%
Read more in the 2018 Growth 40 here.
12. Buffalo, New York
NPD Score: 20
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2018: 54
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2023: 55
QSRs Open as of March 31: 1,540
QSRs Per 100,000 Population as of March 31: 96.8
Forecasted QSR Traffic Growth 2018-2023: 7%
2018 Population: 1,591,288
2023 Population Projected: 1,566,429
Projected Population Growth: -2%
Read more in the 2018 Growth 40 here.
13. Terre Haute, Indiana
NPD Score: 20
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2018: 155
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2023: 156
QSRs Open as of March 31: 356
QSRs Per 100,000 Population as of March 31: 93.7
Forecasted QSR Traffic Growth 2018-2023: 5%
2018 Population: 379,893
2023 Population Projected: 374,406
Projected Population Growth: -1%
Read more in the 2018 Growth 40 here.
14. Fort Myers and Naples, Florida
NPD Score: 20
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2018: 60
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2023: 54
QSRs Open as of March 31: 1,274
QSRs Per 100,000 Population as of March 31: 91.6
Forecasted QSR Traffic Growth 2018-2023: 17%
2018 Population: 1,390,927
2023 Population Projected: 1,566,875
Projected Population Growth: 13%
Read more in the 2018 Growth 40 here.
15. Yakima, Pasco, Richland, Kennewick, Washington
NPD Score: 20
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2018: 109
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2023: 105
QSRs Open as of March 31: 703
QSRs Per 100,000 Population as of March 31: 94.8
Forecasted QSR Traffic Growth 2018-2023: 13%
2018 Population: 741,250
2023 Population Projected: 787,126
Projected Population Growth: 6%
Read more in the 2018 Growth 40 here.
16. Burlington, Vermont and Plattsburgh, New York
NPD Score: 19
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2018: 97
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2023: 100
QSRs Open as of March 31: 830
QSRs Per 100,000 Population as of March 31: 98.9
Forecasted QSR Traffic Growth 2018-2023: 9%
2018 Population: 838,830
2023 Population Projected: 829,353
Projected Population Growth: -1%
Read more in the 2018 Growth 40 here.
17. Monroe, Louisiana; and El Dorado, Arkansas
NPD Score: 19
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2018: 134
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2023: 138
QSRs Open as of March 31: 444
QSRs Per 100,000 Population as of March 31: 93.2
Forecasted QSR Traffic Growth 2018-2023: 3%
2018 Population: 476,470
2023 Population Projected: 466,620
Projected Population Growth: -2%
Read more in the 2018 Growth 40 here.
18. Miami and Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
NPD Score: 18
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2018: 15
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2023: 14
QSRs Open as of March 31: 4,719
QSRs Per 100,000 Population as of March 31: 98.3
Forecasted QSR Traffic Growth 2018-2023: 14%
2018 Population: 4,800,970
2023 Population Projected: 5,046,819
Projected Population Growth: 5%
Read more in the 2018 Growth 40 here.
19. Springfield and Holyoke, Massachusetts
NPD Score: 17
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2018: 116
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2023: 116
QSRs Open as of March 31: 739
QSRs Per 100,000 Population as of March 31: 105.6
Forecasted QSR Traffic Growth 2018-2023: 14%
2018 Population: 699,837
2023 Population Projected: 701,713
Projected Population Growth: 0%
Read more in the 2018 Growth 40 here.
20. Huntsville, Decatur, and Florence, Alabama
NPD Score: 17
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2018: 80
Designated Market Area Population Rank, 2023: 79
QSRs Open as of March 31: 1019
QSRs Per 100,000 Population as of March 31: 98.1
Forecasted QSR Traffic Growth 2018-2023: 9%
2018 Population: 1,038,577
2023 Population Projected: 1,060,724
Projected Population Growth: 2%
Read more in the 2018 Growth 40 here.
