It remains relatively early in McDonald’s race back to unified value. The chain in January launched its McValue Menu—a platform housing every deal: in-app offers, local food and drink specials, a new Buy One, Add One for $1 lure at breakfast and lunch/dinner, and, naturally, the $5 Meal Deal itself, which arrived late June and has extended through.
Beyond the point this change was, as is often the case for McDonald’s, the largest Domino in a wider fast-food value rush, it also marked the first time in nearly six years it boasted a company-wide value position across the U.S. (the last being the $1 $2 $3 menu).
CEO Chris Kempczinski, in McDonald’s Q4 recap, said the brand witnessed an increase in guest counts—a key development given ongoing soft traffic—and the stealing of visit share. Unsurprisingly, guest counts ran ahead of check as well. That latter point is consistent with McDonald’s experience launching new value programs, he said. “And then, as you get that sort of bedded down and you introduce food news and other things on top of that, you get the one, two punch of check plus [guest count] growth. So that’s what we’re expecting in the U.S.,” Kempczinski said.
Essentially, McDonald’s, for a while, lifted its top line on price instead of traffic—like much of the industry. But the equation wobbled as hikes held and it shed business from the lower-income cohort of its guest base.
From 2019 to 2024, McDonald’s appreciated 30 percent same-store sales growth, even with negative customer counts. However, as inflation persisted, there were simply fewer visits to compete for, leading to a “street-fighting mentality,” as CFO Ian Borden explained last April. That kicked off the $5 Meal Deal and, ultimately, the holistic McValue Menu.
McDonald’s simply had to retrench itself among value seekers. Kempczinski’s Q4 commentary suggests it did just that, which is why the company saw check depression with more customers tapping value instead of higher-ticket orders—a point, as noted, he feels will level out once innovation ramps up and the cadence settles.
The brand’s U.S. same-store sales fell 1.4 percent in Q4. Yet it was a difficult stretch to gauge considering October’s slivered onions E. coli outbreak. McDonald’s told investors its domestic business experienced mid-single-digit comps growth, with traffic expansion slightly below, before the incident. The Quarter Pounder hit slid sales to a low point in early November, with trends rebounding into December. Kempczinski said guest count growth reported slightly positive in December and up compared to peers in Q4. He added momentum continued in Q1 2025 and McDonald’s expects to be fully recovered by the start of Q2.
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While the industry saw double-digit declines in lower-income-consumer traffic in Q4, McDonald’s said it observed its highest share all year.
The culprit: value, product news, and digital strength (the total number of 90-day active users reached more than 170 million across 60 markets, with systemwide sales to loyalty members totaling roughy $30 billion in 2024).
The $5 Meal Deal was live in Q4 and the Chicken Big Mac rolled out before the McRib returned in December. And, again, Q1 started with McValue. Executives said leadership of value and affordability scores improved thanks to the $5 Meal Deal and BOGO $1 offer. Both increased average transaction numbers since guests added items beyond the promotion.
Checks that included the $5 Meal Deal were north of $10 on average in Q4. The BOGO offer also boosted breakfast sales—historically McDonald’s highest-margin daypart.
Is the value resonating?
Survey platform Numerator recently polled 400 verified McValue Menu customers to track their reactions to the deal. Here were some results:
McValue Menu buyers said their main reasons for purchasing were the menu offered a low-priced deal (42 percent), the menu offered options at a variety of price points (28 percent), and they specifically wanted an item (or items) available on the McValue Menu (22 percent).
Compared to all McDonald’s shoppers, McValue Menu buyers were 30 percent more likely to be Black, 15 percent more likely to be low income, 15 percent more likely to have children, and 14 percent more likely to be Hispanic.
Most McValue Menu customers were already loyal McDonald’s guests prior to the launch of the McValue Menu—94 percent went to McDonald’s in the first half of 2024.
Forty-eight percent of McValue Menu buyers said the McValue Menu made them choose McDonald’s instead of going to a different restaurant. The restaurants that they would have visited instead were Burger King (18 percent), Chick-fil-A (17 percent), Wendy’s (14 percent), and Taco Bell (11 percent).
Forty-four percent of McValue Menu buyers said they were going to go to McDonald’s anyway, and 8 percent said they were not planning to eat fast food at all but the McValue Menu caused them to go to McDonald’s.
Ninety-one percent of McValue Menu buyers said they are likely to buy off the menu again.
The top options that McValue Menu buyers would like to see on the menu are more burger options (44 percent), more chicken sandwich options (35 percent), more breakfast sandwich options (34 percent), Filet-O-Fish (33 percent), and sweets & treats (30 percent).
So what do these stats clarify in a vacuum? It does appear McDonald’s is swaying some value-driven customers from competitors, getting back into the occasion set after ceding ground over the past couple of years. But it’s also potentially sending loyal diners down the ladder. Like Kempczinski said, this could be a transitory reaction as customers tap “what’s new,” which also happens to be the value end of the spectrum.
The brand has some non-discounted launches on deck, like Snack Wraps, future Chicken Big Mac drips as an LTO, and a new chicken strip offering. The company believes it can add another point of chicken market share by the end of 2026. Globally, its signature McCrispy Sandwich is sold in over 70 markets and will be available in nearly all by the end of this year. It’s a $1 billion brand across several markets.
“We do have, I think, some very exciting food news, food innovation coming in the U.S., but my U.S. team would kill me if I gave any more details about the when and the exact specifics of how we’re going to plan on doing that but certainly expect that to come online later in the year,” Kempczinski said in Q4.
Snack Wraps are a product that left most U.S. menus in 2016, with some restaurants keeping them on through 2020. Introduced in 2006 and priced at $1.29, it’s likely the Snack Wrap not only gives McDonald’s another marketing piece with strong nostalgic pull, but one that can provide a consistent value entry point, either as an add-on or a menu item with ladder-up potential.
BTIG analyst Peter Saleh, from franchisee checks in February, said the McValue platform, $5 Meal Deal, and app/loyalty discounts were accounting for more than a third of sales—three times the company’s historical mix and the highest Saleh could recall.
Plainly, he felt McDonald’s was over-indexing to value with a discount mix so much greater than the traditional average of low-teens. Some franchisees, he added, indicated food costs as a percent of sales had not been this high in six or seven years, implying margin pressure. Several franchisees, reportedly, raised prices on the BOGO items before the deal went into effect to protect margins.
The BOGO represented a mid-teens percent of mix, while the $5 Meal Deal was still in the low double-digits, placing the total discount block north of 30 percent, as mentioned, when including existing app/loyalty discounts (mid-single digits).
Although McDonald’s dealt with inflation, investment in value, and the E. coli incident in 2024, U.S. franchisees still achieved cash flows north of $500,000 per unit, the company claimed.
But broadly, more clarity will come in 2025 as McDonald’s emerges from the E. coli incident and stretches past January weather. Will the brand be able to move its loyal guests off deep discounts and bring in new ones?
It’s a verdict that’s going to have to wait.
