When JAB Holding acquired Panera Breads for $7.5 billion in 2017 and took it private, it marked, at the time, the second largest acquisition in the history of the restaurant industry. Only Tim Hortons’ August 2014 sale to 3G Capital Partners LP, Burger King Worldwide Inc. for $12.64 billion was larger. Inspire Brands’ $11.3 billion 2020 purchase of Dunkin’ Brands (inclusive of Baskin-Robbins) slid Panera to third, with Subway’s roughly $9.6 billion sale to Roark Capital in 2024 taking it to fourth.
Still, there’s no denying the deal’s gravity. Just as it’s irrefutable Panera has faced a winding existence since. In 2020, the multi-brand platform Panera Brands was created to bring JAB concepts Einstein Bagel Bros (bought in 2014 for $374 million) and Caribou Coffee (added two years prior for $340 million) under one umbrella with the intention of going public. Panera Brands that November announced intent to file documents with the SEC relating to a proposed IPO. Restaurateur Danny Meyer’s SPAC, USHG Acquisition Group, inked a deal to invest and serve as a “cornerstone partner,” with Meyer also backing directly and becoming lead independent director at completion.
However, the deal collapsed due to “unfavorable market conditions” ahead of a July 2022 deadline. Later in 2023, Panera Brands confidentially filed for an IPO and planned for a 2024 market debut. That, too, never materialized.
Panera Brands then reportedly explored selling Caribou and Einstein Bros. There was alleged interest from private equity firms and operators. No update followed.
This May, JAB Holding, which also owns Krispy Kreme, Pret a Manger, Espresso House, Bruegger’s, Manhattan Bagel, Keurig Dr. Pepper, JDE Peet’s, and others, announced Jose Cil would step in as chairman of its restaurant concepts. The former CEO of Restaurant Brands International, who helped lead a $1 billion 2021 deal for Firehouse Subs, took oversight of Panera Brands in the U.S. (still Panera, Caribou, and Einstein Bros), Pret a Manger in the U.S., and Espresso House in Scandinavia.
Cil became at least the fourth chairman in the past two years, including former Panera CEO Niren Chaudhary, ex-Krispy Kreme CEO Mike Tattersfield (now top executive of Salad and Go), and former Starbucks CFO Patrick Grismer. The latter was previously appointed board chair in November.
Additionally, three months ago, the company named CFO Paul Carbone, who spent nine years with Dunkin’ from 2008 to 2017, including five as financial chief, CEO—its third in two years.
Other movement in somewhat recent history includes Panera acquiring Au Bon Pain in 2017 and selling its then-171 stores to franchisee Ampex Brands four years later. It was the second time Panera divested the fast casual, in a sense. Panera was founded in 1987 as St. Louis Bread Company, later acquired by Au Bon Pain Co. in 1993, and named Panera in 1997. It sold off the Au Bon Pain unit in 1999. The renamed group then required Au Bon Pain, as noted, in 2017 and converted a crop of units.
But in plain terms, Panera has faced a wave of executive and directional volatility of late. The category pioneer overhauled its menu in 2024 and this year launched a new marketing campaign called, “It Just Meals Good,”—an attempt to show guests the brand has menu items that fit any occasion.
That menu lift, announced in February 2024, marked the biggest update in company history. It comprised more than 20 changes and centered around core offerings such as soup, salads, sandwiches, and mac and cheese. Panera said it would be easier to navigate for guests and put forward larger portion items and lower price points.
The company is also in the process of closing its fresh dough facilities and transitioning to a par-baked model where operators finish products in stores.
So how is Panera, which has noted it’s on a three-year transformation journey, faring amid all the shuffling? Let’s dive into its recently released FDD.
Panera managed to growth during its changes. The chain in 2024 expanded by a net 35 stores to reach 2,206. This after adding 57 in 2023 and four the year prior. Panera has lifted from 2,110 stores at the start of 2022.
That breakdown is relatively even on the corporate-franchised side. Panera, which touts one of the larger corporate footprints in quick service, expanded by 43 company-run units to reach 1,101. That’s where the growth has unfolded—33 in 2023 and 32 the prior year.
The franchised side of Panera’s business retracted by eight in 2024 following expansion of 24 in 2023 and a decline of 28 in 2022.
There were 16 transfers (movement from one operator to another not corporate) in 2024 after 35 and 36 in the prior two years, respectively.
Panera’s franchise development in 2024 included 24 openings, 18 terminations, 11 stores reacquired by the company, and three that ceased operations for other reasons.
The year before, Panera had 47 franchise openings, 12 terminations, and 11 units that ceased operations. The blip in 2022 came from 20 stores being bought back by Panera alongside seven ceased spots, 16 terminations, and 15 openings.
California (97, down from 102 year-over-year), Florida (102), and Ohio (126) represented the largest franchised Panera markets in the U.S.
With company development, Panera in 2024 opened 36 restaurants, closed five, and, as mentioned, acquired 11 from franchisees.
Panera, per its FDD, projects 45 company outlets and 20 franchised to open in fiscal 2025, with five franchise agreements signed without stores debuted (this does not include potential closures). That growth spreads out, with nine openings (seven corporate) in Virginia, eight in Texas (six company), and seven in Florida (all corporate) signaling the biggest areas of potential expansion.
Getting into results, Panera’s fiscal 2024 sales covered 2,134 Bakery-Cafes. The average net sales for company-run units were $2.825.385 million and $2.595.936 for franchises. Combined, the figure was $2.708.833 million.
The 1,050 company-owned units featured ranged from $511,464 to $5.649.165 million, of which 490 (46.7 percent) attained or surpassed the average of $2.825.385 million. This included 17 delivery and carryout locations and excluded three delivery-only restaurants.
The 1,084 franchises scaled from $435,863 to $6.133.228 million (the highest-earning Panera), of which 497 (45.8 percent) were at or above the $2.595.936 number.
In this chart below, the median gross revenue was $2.933.366 million, the high amount $5.970.609 million, and low $559,448. “Discounts” cover coupons, the MyPanera Rewards Program, other promotions, and employee meals.
As for where this slots Panera, the AUV is roughly in line with Panda Express ($2.592 million) and Zaxby’s ($2.647 million), but behind brands like Chipotle ($3.213 million), Culver’s ($4.691 million) McDonald’s ($4.002 million), Whataburger ($4.026 million), In-N-Out ($5.249 million), Raising Cane’s ($6.56 million), and Chick-fil-A ($7.5 million). QSR magazine will reveal the AUVs of the top 50 brands in August.
Panera was the 13th largest quick service in the U.S. in 2024 by systemwide sales at $5.819 billion, ahead of Popeyes ($5.726 billion), and behind Panda Express $6.199 billion. McDonald’s topped at $53.469 billion, with Starbucks ($30.4 billion), Chick-fil-A ($22.746 billion), Taco Bell ($16.2 billion), and Wendy’s ($12.554 billion) rounding out the top five. (This, too, will be revealed across the top 50 in August).
Panera had total assets (in thousands) of $11,838,590 at year-end 2024, a decline from $11,966,677 at 2023 close. Revenues (in thousands) were $4,694,154, down from $4,952,190 and $4,756,876 in 2023 and 2022, respectively.
Net income (in thousands as well) was $133,636 a year after $173,114, and a loss of $51,401 in 2022.
The total investment necessary to begin operation of a Panera Bread Bakery-Cafe as a “Core” format ranges from $1.434.566 million to $4.651.324 million (excluding real estate and related costs, and landlord allowances), including an initial franchise fee of $35,000 and various initial fees and payments of up to $300,000 payable to the company for certain optional development and construction services. The total for a Panera Bread Bakery-Cafe as a “Small Box” format ranges from $1,266,805 to $2,567, including an initial franchise fee of $35,000 and various
initial fees and payments of up to $300,000 payable to the company.
Core builds are roughly 3,200 to 3,500 square feet and as large as 5,200. The smaller ones range from 2,400 to 2,800 square feet.
