Following investor meetings with Portillo’s leadership, William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia suggested 2025 could be a “pivotal year” for the Chicago-based fast casual, thanks to a focus on traffic, new restaurant formats, and a blueprint that could push the brand on a long-term path toward 800-plus locations, $5.5 billion in sales, and $900 million in annual EBITDA.
In terms of store design, the 94-unit company is rolling out smaller prototypes designed to reduce construction costs and maintain the production power needed to deliver $10 million-plus AUV. Its current prototype, launched late last year, trims the footprint by about 1,500 square feet and shortens the kitchen line from 65 to 47 feet. That translates into roughly $1 million in savings per unit, bringing build-out costs down to $5.2–$5.5 million.
READ MORE:
Portillo’s Sees Soft Starts for New Stores
Portillo’s Strikes Deal with Activist, Avoids Proxy Battle
Portillo’s Unleashes Growth Strategy in Texas with New Ads and Streamlined Restaurants
Looking further ahead, Portillo’s plans to introduce a version 2.0 format in 2026, dropping below 5,000 square feet and replacing the linear kitchen with a more efficient E-shaped design. That could shave off another $300,000 to $500,000 in build-out costs and significantly widen real estate opportunities. This includes the brand’s first airport location, which is slated to open at Dallas-Fort Worth International in early 2026.
Portillo’s debuted in Houston in the fourth quarter, although it didn’t go as expected, according to William Blair. The chain opened three units without a traditional marketing launch, assuming the market’s natural demand would mirror Dallas, where initial sales ran at a $17 million annualized pace. Instead, traffic ramped up slower than expected. The brand chalked it up to a mix of macro headwinds, weather, and a misstep in skipping the pre-launch hype. Marketing efforts are now underway in Houston; six stores are planned in the market by the end of 2025.
The chain also learned that menu simplicity may not be the answer. A pared-down menu tested in Houston didn’t yield meaningful labor savings, and some customer favorites—like sausages—are already back. Alcohol is on the table again too. Liquor licenses have been secured and a potential reintroduction is underway.
Portillo’s has managed to keep its high AUVs in new markets, proving that its brand is worthy of national stardom. Units in Texas, Arizona, and Florida are approaching $10 million in AUV, just behind Chicagoland’s $11 million. Even in less established areas, the numbers hold up. The broader Midwest outside Chicago sees AUVs of $5.8 million, while the Sunbelt averages $6.2 to $6.3 million. The menu mix remains consistent nationwide; Italian beef leads sales, followed by fries, onion rings, hot dogs, and burgers.
Atlanta is next in line for expansion. This time, Portillo’s will pre-seed the market with marketing efforts ahead of its debut, Zackfia said.
The brand expects to open 12 restaurants in 2025, which would push it over 100 restaurants for the first time. William Blair estimates that another 15 will open in 2026 and that annual sales will reach $900 million by then.
In Chicago, Portillo’s has 80 percent brand awareness and 41 of its 75 comp locations, but growing traffic in its hometown isn’t easy. With already sky-high AUV and a slowly shrinking population, squeezing out more visits in the Windy City has been difficult.
In response, the brand is focused on specific details to drive incremental gains. For starters, drive-thru times are about a minute slower than they were before the pandemic. Speeding that up could have a real impact. Each minute decrease could add roughly two comp points.
Inside restaurants, fully deployed kiosks (launched in Q4) are helping ease the perceived wait to order, freeing up staff, and increasing throughput. And with a new loyalty program launched in March, Portillo’s hopes to boost frequency, especially in the back half of the year.
Outside its Chicago stronghold, the chain wants to build awareness. In Dallas, a first-quarter marketing campaign bumped brand recognition by 10 percentage points—landing in the high 20s—and lifted sales by a healthy high-single-digit rate. That success paved the way for a campaign in Phoenix during Q2, with Dallas returning to the spotlight in Q3.
In newer markets, Portillo’s is getting creative. It’s using the loyalty platform not just to reward regulars, but to encourage first-timers, like freebie offers for bringing a friend. The goal is to turn initial curiosity into repeat visits and long-term guests.
Total revenue for the first quarter reached $176.4 million, a 6.4 percent increase year-over-year. Same-store sales were up 1.8 percent, driven largely by a 4.9 percent increase in average check. That growth was partially offset by a 3.1 percent decline in transactions.
