Web Exclusive | April 2016 | By Bruce Horovitz

Fallout Over $15

Industry experts say new minimum wage hikes in California and New York will hurt restaurants, employees, and customers.
New minimum wage laws could hurt restaurant business with higher labor costs.
Demonstrators have rallied around the country arguing for a $15 minimum wage. flickr: The All-Nite Images

For restaurants in California and New York—and, ultimately, across the country—the recently approved $15 minimum wage bills represent a new reality for an industry that’s historically been dependent on lower-wage workers.

With the so-called “Fight for $15” movement gaining traction in other states—from Illinois to New Jersey to Michigan—the impact of higher wages will be felt particularly hard in the restaurant industry, from employees to owners and customers. In California, the minimum wage will reach $15 in 2022. The $15 minimum reaches full effect in New York City by December 2018.

As employee wages rise to all-time highs, those who own or run restaurants will ultimately face three choices: increase prices, trim payroll, or add automation, says Jeff Bobrosky, hospitality industry partner at the accounting specialty firm CohnReznick. More likely, operators will pursue some combination of the three, he says.

“No business can absorb such an increase in expenses without a corresponding revenue increase,” Bobrosky says. “If you take a restaurant and hold revenue and operating expenses flat—but increase the minimum wage—that goes straight to the bottom line.”

The movement is undeniable. Some 29 states and the District of Columbia have minimum wage levels that are above the federal level of $7.25. With the new law, there will be a 90 percent increase in the minimum wage in California over the next nine years.

“This is a game changer,” says Jot Condie, president of the California Restaurant Association. “I don’t think anyone knows the full impact here.”

“This is the ultimate stress test for small business.”

Condie says he’s disappointed in Gov. Jerry Brown for signing the bill last week. “This is the ultimate stress test for small business,” says Condie, who notes that about 25 percent of the minimum wage workers in California are restaurant workers. “You’ll see the business model start to change.”

For one thing, he says, the restaurant industry will no longer be the point of entry for many younger workers. That’s because, with wages of $15 per hour, the industry will be far more reluctant to hire unskilled high schoolers looking for a first job. “The first to be priced out will be teens without work experience,” Condie says. Because the restaurant industry has such a low profit margin, he adds, there is little room for error.

Condie says he doesn’t know what most restaurants will ultimately do, though he also suspects they’ll employ some combination of job cutting, price increases, and using more automation to replace hourly workers.

He adds that entry-level workers used to pay increases based on hard work won’t see that kind of reward for the next decade. “It’s good for workers to learn that hard work has a payoff,” he says. “But now, the pay raises have been set on autopilot for the next decade.”

Condie says owners of some restaurants have already told him that, at $15 hourly wages, they may eliminate lunch service to cut back on labor costs.

But Bobrosky says the biggest impact will be in the automation arena. Many restaurants already are testing various phases of automation, and this will only ramp up the speed with which restaurants replace employees with things like kiosks and table tablets.

In order to remain profitable, Bobrosky says, “restaurant owners will need to do some things that hurt their employees in the long run.”

Some restaurant owners also have told him that they are considering a future “surcharge” on checks specifically because of the $15 minimum wage. “But they will have to be careful from a legal standpoint,” he says, because they may also have to pay taxes on the additional revenue. “But it’s all simple math,” he says. “If costs go up, profits go down.”

Comments

The geniuses who have dictated the $15.00 wage minimum have now painted the hourly employee into a big box from which there is no escape.
Fewer people will be hired,fewer people will see wage increases,and I-pads will now greet the customers as they place their order.......
Sounds like
the hi-tech industry has won the day and the wage earners get the crumbs.

As a business owner providing apparel programs to the restaurant industry, my own business will also be impacted. Less workers means fewer uniforms needed. Machines don't need shirts.

What no one is commenting on is the upside for the Federal and State financial coffers. Between collecting more tax dollars on the cost increase of goods that will be passed on to the consumer and all the other taxes on the higher wage an hour, this will be a tax bonanza. If the government was truly interested in the welfare of the average wage earner, they would reduce the taxes levied so more disposable income would trickle down to those who need it. But yet that is never in the discussion. Wonder why? I see this wage an hour increase as a disguise for the state & federal government to appease the unions while increasing their tax revenue without any citizen even batting an eye. Just do your personal calculation and what you quickly decipher is the windfall for the government will be higher than to the average person. Remember, all US consumers will pay more for all goods and hopefully more jobs will not leave the US.

A person earning $15/hour at, what is most likely, a part-time job, is making around $25,000 year. An increase from what currently would be $12,500. So for the average worker you are talking about 10 to 15% tax brackets for federal, before considering EIC. So the "windfall" - if you want to call it that - will be from less money going out in benefits not significant more tax dollars coming in. Henry Ford believed in paying his workers enough so they could afford to buy his cars, in essence creating more customers. Somewhere we lost sight of that. What are we going to do when there are not nearly enough people that can afford to buy our products and services?

There won't be as much of a "tax bonanza" if the employers have a "cost-cutting bonanza"

I started working in '89 for the local Domino's franchise delivering pizza for $3.45 and hour plus 50 cents per run, plus any tips, gas was 99 cents a gallon. Now most employees in my burger shop start out at $7.75 an hour, and gas is now $1.79 a gallon. With 15 an hour, gas and other goods should double? And the arguement that this will get people off welfare doesn't wash. Throughout changes in minimum wage laws, the percentage of people on welfare hasn't changed much, usually 19% of the population.

I started working in '89 for the local Domino's franchise delivering pizza for $3.45 and hour plus 50 cents per run, plus any tips, gas was 99 cents a gallon. Now most employees in my burger shop start out at $7.75 an hour, and gas is now $1.79 a gallon. With 15 an hour, gas and other goods should double? And the arguement that this will get people off welfare doesn't wash. Throughout changes in minimum wage laws, the percentage of people on welfare hasn't changed much, usually 19% of the population.

Goodbye Innovation and the end of Unique and Cool Places to eat.

I own a Sugar-Free Diabetic Bakery in Clackamas, Oregon. I will be put out of business with the $15 an hour wage. There is only so much I can do about raising prices to compensate, but my Cost of Goods is higher because I do sugar-free. 50 lbs. of my sweetener costs $255 where the same weight in real sugar is $18. I will not be hiring, and will probably reduce my already small staff. People are going to be hurt by this as they will have no job to go to. Americans cannot afford anymore increases in anything. Why can't our government stay on a budget and spend our money wisely. Our country has become a global joke instead of a leader.

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