That brings us back to the present. Instead of being squeezed out by groceries, what if restaurants could use them to show their superior value, Datassential said.
“They have already taken the first step with limited time offers around pricing, family-sized meals and free delivery. But restaurants can take this one step further by using groceries as a comparative frame-of-reference,” the company said.
How does a restaurant-quality meal, with no delivery fee and no preparation time, discounted for the entire family, now compare to the suddenly higher cost for a grocery basket to prepare the same meal at home? Probably more favorably than most consumers realize.
That idea that eating at home saves money, how viable is it truly right now?
“And once you factor in the stressful shopping experience, time and transportation, value has taken on a whole new meaning,” Datassential said.
Essentially, it might be time for restaurants to treat grocery stores like they have long viewed traditional rivals—bring the message and fight where it matters most to consumers: their wallets.
For more than a third of people, limiting restaurant purchases and cooking at home seems the most popular strategy to save money post COVID-19, Datassential found. Beyond this, though, all other strategies are viewed somewhat similarity in consumers’ eyes.
Meanwhile, 35 percent of Boomers, many of whom are less worried about their financial health when the crisis clears, are unlikely to adopt any of these money-saving strategies.
“How will consumers save money once COVID-19 and social distancing are eased?”
- Get restaurant food less often: 38 percent
- Find and use more coupons: 23 percent
- Choose less expensive restaurants: 22 percent (this is something for operators to circle as they begin thinking about how to position themselves in the recovery period)
- Choose less expensive menu items: 19 percent
- Order from the “value” / “dollar” menu more: 18 percent (value is not going to be restricted by straight price. Can you feed a family of four on this offer? Questions like that are gaining prominence as people try to cut down trips outside the house. The same will be true in the early days after COVID-19)
- Order delivery less often: 17 percent
- Order carryout instead of dining in: 15 percent
- Order more shared/big bundle items: 15 percent
- Just have water with my meal: 15 percent
- Skip appetizers, side dishes, or desserts: 14 percent
- Skip having alcoholic beverages with my meal: 12 percent
- None of these: 24 percent
An important takeaway might be to let some COVID-19 innovations linger past the date when restaurants start to reopen. Things like bundles and improved curbside offerings and services will still play a vital role for wary consumers. It might even become an ingrained part of the restaurant experience. We just don’t know yet.
Who is going to benefit?
When consumer budgets do loosen up, it appears people will rush back into social environments. This is where full-service restaurants stand to benefit the most, but it could take a while to get there, Datassential cautioned.
People will emerge concerned about ordering too many high-margin ancillaries that sit-down operators historically use to drive up checks, such as alcohol, appetizers, and desserts. They’re a little more likely to cut back on alcohol (either with a meal or going out to bars) and on coffee away from home than they are to add those drinks back into their routines.
Meals from full-service restaurants
- Likely to cut back on if budgets worsen: –19 percent
- Likely to spend more on if budgets improve: 29 percent
Health-focused foods
- Likely to cut back on if budgets worsen: –23 percent
- Likely to spend more on if budgets improve: 22 percent
Fresh prepared foods from the grocery store
- Likely to cut back on if budgets worsen: –12 percent
- Likely to spend more on if budgets improve: 19 percent
Snacks from the grocery store
- Likely to cut back on if budgets worsen: –17 percent
- Likely to spend more on if budgets improve: 17 percent
Upscale/premium brands from the grocery store
- Likely to cut back on if budgets worsen: –20 percent
- Likely to spend more on if budgets improve: 16 percent
Coffee away from home
- Likely to cut back on if budgets worsen: –22 percent
- Likely to spend more on if budgets improve: 16 percent
Convenience/pre-made foods
- Likely to cut back on if budgets worsen: –18 percent
- Likely to spend more on if budgets improve: 16 percent
Appetizers and desserts with my meal
- Likely to cut back on if budgets worsen: –21 percent
- Likely to spend more on if budgets improve: 15 percent
Alcoholic beverages with my meal
- Likely to cut back on if budgets worsen: –22 percent
- Likely to spend more on if budgets improve: 14 percent
Snacks or smoothies away from home
- Likely to cut back on if budgets worsen: –19 percent
- Likely to spend more on if budgets improve: 14 percent
Eating at places where tipping is expected
- Likely to cut back on if budgets worsen: –13 percent
- Likely to spend more on if budgets improve: 14 percent
Going out for drinks
- Likely to cut back on if budgets worsen: –26 percent
- Likely to spend more on if budgets improve: 13 percent
Non-alcoholic beverages with my meal
- Likely to cut back on if budgets worsen: –15 percent
- Likely to spend more on if budgets improve: 12 percent
Meals from limited-service restaurants
- Likely to cut back on if budgets worsen: –11 percent
- Likely to spend more on if budgets improve: 11 percent
None: I would not cut from food budget
- Likely to cut back on if budgets worsen: –18 percent
- Likely to spend more on if budgets improve: 24 percent
The fact those two measures are a wash for quick-serves suggests a quick turnaround. Perhaps not as steep as full service, but also with less ground to make up. Counter-service chains should step right back into consumers’ daily routines. Many have remained there throughout COVID-19.