QDOBA CEO John Cywinski has said it before: The Mexican chain is one of the best-kept secrets in the restaurant industry.
He claimed as much when the chain announced in August that it would receive a $527 million investment from parent company Butterfly. The executive shared the same sentiment on stage at the ICR Conference earlier this month. This time, he added to his description, calling QDOBA a “diamond in the rough.”
“You may not have it in the market,” he told the crowd. “There are 840 restaurants today. Many, many more are coming.”
Right now, QDOBA has 840 stores, a $1.7 million AUV, $1.3 billion in systemwide sales, a 23 percent restaurant-level EBITDA margin, and a $36 million marketing fund.
In 10 years, this is where it wants to be: 2,000 units, a $2.7 million AUV, $5 billion in systemwide sales, a 28 percent restaurant-level EBITDA margin, and a $200 million national marketing fund.
Cywinski admitted he didn’t know much about QDOBA while working on the West Coast as Applebee’s brand president—the role he held prior to becoming CEO—as the brand doesn’t have a huge presence in California yet. But the executive did his diligence, and his research showed the chain existed squarely in the Mexican fast-casual space, with only Chipotle and Moe’s as competitors.
“You see pizza and chicken categories. There are mature, legacy, old market share battles going on, negative traffic, and so it’s hard to grow in those categories. There’s no tailwind or organic growth,” Cywinski said. “And then here we are in the middle, in the sweet spot of fast casual, Mexican fast casual, the fastest-growing, most attractive category, subcategory within the industry. And we have large, well-established franchise partners looking to diversify their portfolios and come into our brand.”
During his discovery phase, Cywinski also asked the Butterfly team about QDOBA’s performance over the past couple of decades. What he found was a chain that’s experienced positive same-store sales nearly every year.
Between 2004 and 2025, the brand has been in the black 19 of 22 years and that’s despite “the wrong ownership and the wrong management teams,” according to Cywinski. Jack in the Box owned QDOBA from 2003 to 2018 and then sold the brand to Apollo Management Group. Apollo controlled the chain for four years until Butterfly took the reins. Cywinski was appointed CEO a few months after Butterfly’s acquisition finalized.
Here’s how QDOBA’s comps have trended since 2015:
- 2015: 9.3 percent
- 2016: 1.4 percent
- 2017: –1.5 percent
- 2018: 0.4 percent
- 2019: 4.2 percent
- 2020: –9.8 percent
- 2021: 10.7 percent
- 2022: 12.1 percent
- 2023: 6.1 percent
- 2024: 7.7 percent
- 2025: 4.4 percent
Cywinski added that over the past two years, QDOBA has outperformed every restaurant dining category in terms of sales and traffic, according to Black Box Intelligence data. The CEO also takes pride in the fact that the brand has outperformed Chipotle for the past five quarters.
Here’s how AUV has moved throughout recent years:
- 2019: $1.2 million
- 2020: $1.1 million
- 2021: $1.3 million
- 2022: $1.4 million
- 2023: $1.5 million
- 2024: $1.6 million
- 2025: $1.7 million
“We’ve got momentum, and we’re proud of that momentum,” Cywinski said.
As for unit growth, QDOBA has over 650 restaurant commitments. After closing a net of nine locations across 2021 and 2022, the chain opened a net of 94 restaurants between 2023 and 2025. The goal is to open a net of 73 locations in 2026 to eclipse 900 locations. Then, in 2027, QDOBA hopes to reach a net of 100 openings and 1,000 units. Over time, the brand has increasingly relied on operators, moving from 55 percent franchised in 2021 to a projected 85 percent in 2027.
Here’s a list of multi-concept franchisees QDOBA is attracting:
| North Fork Fresh Mex | Barry Dubin | Mark Cafua | Thrive Restaurant Group | Doherty Enterprises | The Rose Group | |
| Total Committed Units | 70 | 50 | 50 | 45 | 27 | 35 |
| Portfolio | Largest QDOBA franchisee; also operates dozens of Sonic restaurants | Former largest KFC franchisee | Largest private Dunkin’ franchisee | Second-largest Applebee’s franchisee | Fourth-largest Applebee’s franchisee | Eighth-largest Applebee’s franchisee |
“We love asset light,” Cywinski said. “We have 100-ish franchise partners, and they are exceptional and we’re bringing in very sophisticated, talented partners into the business as well.”
The focus will be on endcap and freestanding restaurants because that’s where QDOBA performs best. While inline units achieve $1.6 million AUV and 21.5 percent EBITDA margins, endcap is at $1.7 million AUV and 23.1 percent margins and freestanding is at $1.8 million AUV and 23.8 percent margins.
Although growth is imminent, QDOBA’s awareness is still relatively low. According to the brand’s data, only 43 percent of America is aware of the company, including less than 40 percent in the South, Southeast, Northeast, and West Coast regions. But there’s a reason for this; QDOBA isn’t penetrated in California, and it doesn’t have stores yet in Houston, Atlanta, or Nashville.
The go-forward plan is to ramp up marketing efforts. QDOBA retained Leo Burnett Advertising and convinced franchisees to increase their national marketing contribution from 2.75 percent to 4.5 percent.
QDOBA has proof that increased awareness leads to higher sales. Data shows that when a market has one to three restaurants, AUV is around $1.6 million and EBITDA margins are roughly 21.2 percent. But in areas with over 12 locations, AUV jumps to $1.9 million and EBITDA margins lift to 29.6 percent.
“[Our franchisees are] believers, and a lot of those folks, keep in mind, come from other brands where they saw the power of marketing,” Cywinski said. “And marketing for us is a significant lever.”
In other words, the secret of QDOBA will soon be out. And Cywinski wouldn’t have it any other way.
“God knows we got plenty of whitespace across the country,” Cywinski said.
