The U.S. restaurant industry is expected to reach $1.55 trillion in sales in 2026, a 4.8 percent increase year-over-year, according to the National Restaurant Association’s 2026 State of the Restaurant Industry report.
The increase comes amid a complex operating environment. Adjusted for inflation, real sales growth is projected to be 1.3 percent, indicating that much of the nominal increase will come from higher menu pricing instead of guest traffic.
“Restaurants remain an economic powerhouse that, even when faced with soft consumer spending and sustained margin pressures, drives job growth and fosters entrepreneurship,” Michelle Korsmo, president and CEO of the Association, said in a statement. “The industry’s resilience is driven by its people, its adaptability, and its ability to evolve alongside consumers, making continued investment in workforce, innovation, and smart policy solutions essential to long-term growth.”
Thirty-two percent of full-service operators and 29 percent of quick-service operators expect sales to increase in 2026. Approximately 25 percent anticipate declines. Most believe sales will be comparable to 2025.
The restaurant industry should add more than 100,000 jobs this year, putting it at roughly 15.8 million in 2026.
Last year proved difficult for operators. Restaurateurs faced elevated food costs, rising labor expenses, and softer consumer traffic. To be more specific, food costs ended the year 38 percent higher than in 2019; labor costs rose 35 percent over the same period. In addition to these pressures, the industry dealt with supply disruptions linked to avian influenza and new tariffs. Because of costs and softer visitation, 42 percent of operators reported unprofitability in 2025, and 6 in 10 say customer traffic declined year-over-year.
However, there is proof that guests want to dine out. Eighty-seven percent of adults report that they enjoy going out, and 61 percent consider restaurants an essential part of their lifestyle. Among guests who say they’re having a hard time covering basic living expenses, more than half say they continue to dine in or order takeout/delivery.
But consumers are taking a cautious approach. More than four in 10 say they are visiting restaurants less often than one year ago, and nearly half of adults describe themselves as struggling to keep up with the cost of living. Still, there is demand: over 70 percent say they would use restaurants more often if their budgets allowed. Value is a major part of how guests use restaurants. Over 80 percent of diners say discounts or promotions influence their restaurant choices for delivery. A majority of customers feel the same way when it comes to takeout, drive-thru, and in-store dining.
To mitigate higher costs, 90 percent of full-service operators and 85 percent of quick-service operators increased menu prices. Many reported looking for alternate suppliers, negotiating with existing vendors, removing certain menu items, and adjusting portion sizes.
In terms of what’s ahead, beef prices are projected to remain high through 2026. Pork markets are constrained by herd contraction, while poultry production is expected to expand modestly, subject to disease risk. Egg supplies are still recovering from significant flock losses in 2022. Meanwhile, commodities such as cocoa and beet sugar are projected to decline in price.
Aside from food, more than 90 percent say labor, insurance, and inflation are major challenges. Credit card and debit card processing fees, energy costs, and tariffs also remain a burden. And profit margins are thin. In 2024, median pre-tax income represented 2.8 percent of sales for full-service concepts and 4 percent for quick-service restaurants.
“Success for operators this year will hinge on their ability to get the math right in a still‑challenging economic environment,” Dr. Chad Moutray, chief economist for the Association, said in a statement. “After a year when 60 percent of operators reported softer customer traffic, there is cautious optimism for improvement. At the same time, operators remain laser‑focused on controlling costs while delivering value and providing satisfying menu innovation that resonates with consumers.”
Looking at the bigger picture, the broader U.S. economy is expected to expand at a 2.7 percent real GDP growth rate this year, with inflation moderating to 2.5 percent. Employment growth will slow, but remain positive. Consumer sentiment, however, is a mixed bag. Higher-income households are fueling most discretionary spending while lower- and middle-income guests are showing more caution.
Tourism is one variable to watch. In a typical year, about 30 percent of restaurant sales come from travelers and visitors, with fine-dining brands seeing a larger share. But nearly half of operators say they experienced lower-than-normal tourism-related sales last year.
