For the past several years, the quick service restaurant industry has operated under a straightforward assumption: consumers are feeling the effects of inflation and economic uncertainty, so the brands that win will be those that charge the least. The response has been predictable. Value meals have returned, limited-time offers have multiplied and discounting has become one of the industry’s primary tools for driving traffic.
While those strategies can generate short-term demand, they also reflect a broader misconception about today’s consumer. People haven’t stopped spending. Despite continued cost pressures, restaurant spending has remained resilient, according to the National Restaurant Association. Consumers have instead become more selective about where they spend and what they believe justifies the price they’re being asked to pay.
That distinction changes how restaurant brands should think about growth. Rather than asking how to become the lowest-priced option, leaders should be asking how to become the brand customers believe delivers the greatest value.
Consumers Are Redefining What Value Means
Recent data from Revenue Management Solutions found that fast casual traffic increased 3 percent year over year while full-service restaurant visits rose 5 percent. At the same time, a growing share of consumers reported spending more of their disposable income dining out. Consumers are still willing to spend, but they are becoming more intentional about where that spending occurs.
Price still matters, but it is increasingly evaluated alongside food quality, convenience, consistency and overall experience. More importantly, value changes depending on the occasion. The same customer who prioritizes speed during a weekday lunch may care more about bundle value when ordering dinner for a family or delivery convenience later in the evening.
For restaurant leaders, understanding value therefore requires more than knowing who the customer is. It requires understanding the occasion, channel and context surrounding each purchase. Building a stronger value proposition is no longer simply a pricing challenge. It requires rethinking many of the assumptions that have traditionally driven growth.
Why the Traditional Growth Model Is Beginning to Break Down
For decades, growth followed a predictable formula: open more restaurants, increase convenience and reach as many consumers as possible. Marketing reflected the same philosophy through broad promotions designed to drive traffic across an entire customer base.
That approach made sense when convenience was one of the industry’s greatest competitive advantages. Today’s consumer has more choice and more ways to transact. Customers can order directly from a restaurant, use a third-party delivery platform, visit a drive-thru or move between channels depending on the occasion. The challenge is no longer simply getting customers into a restaurant or an app. It is meeting them where they choose to engage while understanding the economics of each interaction.
The same principle applies to promotions. A loyal customer who regularly purchases at full price represents a very different opportunity than someone who hasn’t returned in months. Offering both the same incentive can sacrifice margin without meaningfully changing behavior.
As value becomes more personal, growth depends less on reaching every customer with the same message and more on understanding what will create value in a particular moment. That requires better decisions about which customer to engage, through which channel, at what time and with what product, bundle or incentive.
AI Makes Value More Personal
For years, restaurant brands have talked about personalization, but delivering it consistently across millions of interactions has remained difficult. Artificial intelligence changes that by allowing brands to move beyond broad customer segments toward decision-making at the individual and occasion level.
Rather than simply determining who receives a coupon, AI can help brands understand which product or bundle is most relevant at a particular daypart, when an add-on could improve attachment, which customers may be disengaging and when an incentive is unnecessary because the customer is already likely to purchase.
That changes the economics of personalization. Restaurants can make more precise decisions designed to improve frequency, check size and attachment while reducing unnecessary promotional spending.
Loyalty becomes particularly important in this model. Its role should extend beyond rewarding transactions or pushing every customer toward an owned app. Loyalty can give brands a richer understanding of occasions, preferences and frequency while creating reasons for customers to deepen their first-party relationship. At the same time, third-party delivery will remain an important part of how many consumers interact with restaurant brands.
The opportunity is to connect those environments. Brands need to create relevant value wherever customers choose to transact while using each interaction to build a better understanding of what will motivate the next purchase.
Preparing for the Next Phase of QSR Growth
The next phase of QSR growth will require leaders to look beyond restaurant count, promotional volume and individual transactions. Measures such as attachment, frequency, channel economics and customer lifetime value will become increasingly important indicators of whether a brand is creating sustainable growth.
That requires a clear understanding of the value customers seek, a deliberate strategy for the role of first- and third-party channels and the data and decisioning capabilities necessary to respond differently across customers and occasions.
AI will play an important role in that evolution, not because it changes what customers want, but because it gives brands a better ability to understand and respond to those expectations at scale. Consumers are still willing to spend. The next chapter of QSR growth will belong to the brands that understand when, where and why they are willing to spend, and consistently give them something they believe is worth paying for.
Jagdish Ghanshani is Managing Partner and Travel, Hospitality and Dining Lead for North America at Publicis Sapient, where he helps leading travel, hospitality and dining brands navigate technology transformation. With more than 25 years of experience, he advises organizations on growth, customer experience and technology strategy, with a focus on using data and AI to create business value.
