McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski is honest when it comes to the outlook of the restaurant industry.
The environment is difficult. And the CEO said that won’t change much in 2026 as inflation is expected to be above average. Also, for the past couple of years, McDonald’s has seen low-income consumers decline by nearly double digits across the QSR segment, and Kempczinski doesn’t believe this will relent until guests feel relief around cost of living—i.e. rent, childcare, and groceries—and their real income.
“This is an environment where you’ve just got to grind it out,” Kempczinski said during the chain’s Q3 earnings call. “I mean that was an expression that Ray Kroc always loved to talk about. And it kind of feels like that’s sort of how we’re having to operate, which is just grinding out and getting growth.”
McDonald’s did just that in the third quarter, seeing global same-store sales rising 3.6 percent. That consisted of 2.4 percent comp growth in the U.S., 4.3 percent in International Operated Markets, and 4.7 percent in International Developmental Licensed Markets.
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In the U.S. specifically, although the lower-income consumer is waning, the brand is seeing nearly double-digit increases from high-income guests across the industry.
“I think sometimes there’s this idea that value matters to low income, but value matters to everybody,” Kempczinski said. “Whether you’re upper income, middle income, lower income, feeling like you’re getting good value for your dollar is important.”
The brand’s domestic segment was fueled by the launch of Snack Wraps and a nationally advertised $2.99 price point. During the initial four-week window, the product exceeded expectations. Nearly one in five customers bought a Snack Wrap during that period, making it one of the most successful new chicken item releases in recent memory. The excitement eased over time, yet the product still helped McDonald’s gain share in the U.S. chicken category and drove high levels of customer satisfaction, according to CFO Ian Borden.
The McValue platform continues to play a strong role as well. In mid-July, the brand added the Daily Double burger to its meal deals lineup, in addition to the McChicken and McDouble options. Additionally, McDonald’s is seeing incrementality from both its meal deals and BOGO for $1 offer, with little customer overlap between the two.
In September, the company brought back Extra Value Meals—discounted combo meals during breakfast and the rest of the day—to increase value perceptions with its core menu offerings. McDonald’s began with a nationally advertised $5 Sausage McMuffin with Egg meal and an $8 Big Mac meal. This month, the brand is highlighting its $5 Sausage, Egg, and Cheese McGriddle meal and $8 10-piece McNuggets meal. McDonald’s is evaluating the success of Extra Value Meals in two ways—the first is by how much it gains share with lower-income consumer traffic, and the second is by how much it improves value and affordability experience scores. So far, the platform is performing in line with expectations, and Kempczinski said sales lifts and traffic increases should continue as the company builds awareness for the program.
McDonald’s provided $40 million in incremental marketing support to help launch Extra Value Meals. It’s also paying for 50 percent of the cost of menu price reductions, amounting to $15 million in September and $75 million in the fourth quarter. All corporate backing will stop at the end of Q1, but Kempczinski thinks franchisees will keep the program in place because of the long-term benefits around incrementality.
“The number one driver of consumers value perception is actually what’s going on the menu board. It’s not meal deal offers, it’s what’s going on on the menu board,” Kempczinski said. “And we—along with our U.S. franchisees—recognized that we had an opportunity there and that through kind of a number of things that had happened over time, we had gotten out of whack on [Extra Value Meals]. And that was having a drag on our value perception, and so we went to the U.S. franchisees with a path forward on how we’re going to fix [Extra Value Meals]. And the good news, the vast, vast majority—and I’m talking like 98, 99 percent—of our franchisees recognized that we had an issue with [Extra Value Meals] that we needed to address.”
The chain kicked off the fourth quarter by reintroducing Monopoly in the U.S. for the first time in nearly a decade. The promotion has become one of McDonald’s biggest digital customer acquisition events ever, driving increased app downloads and loyalty registrations. Currently, the chain’s MyMcDonald’s Rewards program has 45 million 90-day active users.
Looking ahead, McDonald’s could get added help from beverages. At the start of September, the brand launched a test in more than 500 stores across Colorado and Wisconsin. The pilot menu features cold coffees, fruity refreshers, crafted sodas, and energy-based drinks. Initial results are pushing past expectations. The offerings are fueling incremental occasions across different dayparts and higher average check.
The chain wants to ensure this new beverage lineup is value-oriented too.
“We’re being very thoughtful and purposeful about where we price these products,” Kempczinski said. “We have a variety of different items, but we think the opportunity for us is to be actually able to bring value into this segment as well. And so with our franchisees, we’ve been very thoughtful about where these products are priced relative to the competitors that would have similar offerings. And I think what we’re seeing here is for us, should we roll this out nationally, being very disciplined on pricing and making sure that we’re delivering value on these beverages versus the competitive set is going to be the way that we’re successful in this segment.”
While other QSR concepts have seen trends worsen throughout Q3 and into the start of Q4, Borden predicts continued growth across each of McDonald’s global segments. He added that U.S. same-store sales should accelerate, partly because the company is lapping the food safety incident from last year, but also because of the layers of value and digital engagement.
“In this environment, you really got to be what we call three for three,” Borden said. “You can’t be just strong on value individually or you can’t just be having a great marketing execution quarter or a great menu news quarter. “You’ve got to get all three of those things to come together, and I think we feel we’re doing a better job of really strong execution across the business.”
McDonald’s finished Q3 with 13,633 U.S. stores, consisting of 12,966 franchised outlets and 667 company-owned units. Internationally, it had 30,966 restaurants.
